Does the Leaded Law Hold True in Orlando?

Reports this morning indicate that a disgruntled former employee at an awning manufacturer in Orlando went Postal and shot up his former place of work. As best I can read the reports, the 45 year old male shooter killed four victims before taking his own life, while seven other people at the business escaped unharmed — I assume here that the shooter did not even attempt to harm these individuals.

Based on the Leaded Law, which allows me to predict the demographic profile of the shooter on little more than killed-to-wounded statistics, I’m going to predict that this Orlando shooter was most likely white, with a slight chance that he is East Asian.

Recall the basic formula of the Leaded Law which applies to every mass-shooting incident:

Casualty Ratio (Killed:Wounded)               Profile of Shooter

Lower than 1:3                                                   Black Male

Greater than 1:3, lower than 2:1                  “Irish” or Hispanic Male

Greater than 2:1                                                White Male

Here, it looks like a 4:0 killed to wounded ratio, putting us squarely in “white” territory. I’ll note here that for purposes of the Leaded Law a slight chance of East Asian ancestry is embedded in the concept of “white.” I’ll also take this opportunity to introduce a refinement to the basic formula: When the shooter ends his own life at the end of a spree shooting, you have a very strong plus factor pointing at white male.

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