Here’s An Interesting Case

High kill ratio at house party shooting


Gunman shoots up a house party in an affluent Seattle suburb. Three dead and one wounded but expected to survive. May God have mercy on the souls of the dead, and bring healing to the injured and comfort to the bereaved.

The police have captured a suspect but the press is being coy about identifying him. Coyness is unusual with White suspects, yet my recently invented Leaded Rule of Race and Marksmanship suggests that the shooter is White or Asian because the killed-to-wounded ratio is much better than 1:1. Not yet willing to put money on Asian specifically, just by process of elimination based on press coyness, so we’ll have to wait and see once the charging documents and mugshot are released.

This is also a good time to take a statistical caveat — the Leaded Rule should be thought of as describing a distribution: most cases will cluster around the means I identified, but this still admits of outliers, so long as they are merely occasional. It’s weasel words, I know, but it’s how the world works. I still think the Leaded Rule will prove to be a good guide to betting, if you habitually bet on these things.



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